^#smrgSAHAF Earthquake Risk Assessment For The Istanbul Metropolitan Area Final Report - 2003

Following the losses suffered during the two major earthquakes that struck Turkey in 1999, there has been broad recognition among Turkey's governmental, non-governmental and academic organizations of the need for extensive response planning based on detailed risk analyses of likely seismic hazards in Turkey in general and Istanbul in particular.

The current research project had the following objectives:

1. The development of an Istanbul metropolitan area risk model based on current data, on:

• Hazard assessment based on the seisrno-tectonic structure, surface geology and local site conditions.

• Shaking intensities anticipated for a deterministic scenario earthquake (M=7.5) along the Main Marmara Fault

• The spatial distribution of building types within the general building stock and their respective levels of vulnerability to earthquake damage.

2. The development of estimates for human and social impacts as a result of such a scenario earthquake, including: building damage, casualties and people left homeless. Damage to infrastructure and lifelines are only dealt with in general terms based on the intensity levels.

3. Public provision of the results via the Internet to enable disaster response planning.

The interim report of the studies essentially covered the first objective. This final report encompasses the whole study.

Under the general coordination of Prof. Dr. Mustafa Erdik, the project was carried out by the following researchers, listed in academic alphabetical order. The main contributions of the contributors are indicated in parenthesis.

Prof. Dr. Nuray Aydınoğlu (Building Fragility Relationships)

Prof. Dr. Aykut Barka (Tectonic Setting)

Prof. Dr. Mustafa Erdik (Project Management and General Coordination)

Prof. Dr. Özal Yüzügüllü (Infrastructure and Lifeline Vulnerabilities)

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bilge Siyahi (Geotechnics, Geotechnical Hazards)

Assist. Prof. Dr. Eser Durukal (Seismiclty, Earthquake Hazard)

Assist. Prof. Dr. Yasin Fahjan (Software Development)

Res. Asst. Hakan Akman (Building Inventory, Infrastructure and Lifeline Inventory and Losses)

Gülüm Birgoren (Earthquake Hazards, GIS Applications)

Yeşim Alpay-Biro (Earthquake Hazards, GIS Applications)

Mine B. Demircioğlu (Telekom Maps Data Extraction, GIS Applications)

Res. Asst. Cem Özbey (Demographic Data)

Res. Asst. Karin Şeşetyan (Building and Human Loss Assessments, Hazard Mapping)

Prof.Dr. Atilla Ansal carried out the QA/QC of the final report (From back cover)