^#smrgSAHAF SESRTCIC Econometric Model of The Turkish Economy -

The present volume is the first in a series of econometric models planned for a number of the member countries of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) within the framework of a research project initiated at the Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRTCIC), a subsidiary organ of the OIC. The project aims to foster a better understanding of the structure and functioning of the individual member country economies, help draw inferences and make suggestions on policy matters, and facilitate shortterm forecasting of national economic developments in these countries in terms of certain key variables.

The model of the Turkish economy presented in this volume contains a non-linear and dynamic simultaneous system of 40 equations, where estimates are obtained by both Single Equation and System Estimation methods for the period 1961-1984. Dynamic simulations are carried out in order to check the stability and representative ability of the model, and to obtain forecasts for 1987. Meanwhile, policy simulations are performed for a comparative evaluation of alternative economic policies. Furthermore, data for 96 variables covering the 1960-1985 period, which are used in estimations and simulations, are also provided.

This study is intended to serve as a source of reference for economic planners and policy-makers. It should also be of interest to development economists, macro-economists and applied econometricians for the empirical analyses it contains regarding the propositions of the Keynesian,; Monetarist and Rational Expectationist approaches to the workings of an economy in the case of a developing country.